Rajeeva Karandikar (CMI):  Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls
Tuesday 30th June 200--315pm   Chair: S Kesavan

Abstract: How can obtaining opinions of, say,  30,000 voters be sufficient to predict the outcome of
an election in a country with over 60 crore voters? Do the opinion polls conducted say a month before
the election accurately predict what is to happen on the voting day?
  
We will address such questions and show that simple mathematics and statistics, lots of common sense and
a good understanding of the ground reality or domain knowledge together can yield very good forecast or
predictions of the outcome of elections based on opinion polls and exit polls.   I will share my own
experiences with opinion polls and exit polls over last 15 years.